A climate scientist's thoughts on An Inconvenient Truth

by Eric Steig, Associate Professor, Earth and Space Sciences, U of Washington

Along with various Seattle business and community leaders, city planners and politicians, a large group of scientists from the University of Washington got a chance to preview the new film, An Inconvenient Truth, last week. The film is about Al Gore's efforts to educate the public about global warming, with the goal of creating the political will necessary for the United States to take the lead in efforts to lower global carbon emissions. It is an inspiring film, and is decidedly non-partisan in its outlook (though there are a few subtle references to the Bush administration's lack of leadership on this and other environmental issues).

Since Gore is rumored to be a fan of RealClimate, we thought it appropriate to give our first impressions.

Much of the footage in Inconvenient Truth is of Al Gore giving a slideshow on the science of global warming. Sound boring? Well, yes, a little. But it is a very good slide show, in the vein of Carl Sagan (lots of beautiful imagery, and some very slick graphics and digital animation). And it is interspersed with personal reflections from Gore that add a very nice human element. Gore in the classroom in 1968, listening to the great geochemist Roger Revelle describe the first few years of data on carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere. Gore on the family farm, talking about his father's tobacco business, and how he shut it down when his daughter (Al Gore's sister) got lung cancer. Gore on the campaign trail, and his disappointment at the Supreme Court decision. This isn't the "wooden" Gore of the 2000 campgain; he is clearly in his element here, talking about something he has cared deeply about for over 30 years.

How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity. As one might expect, he uses the Katrina disaster to underscore the point that climate change may have serious impacts on society, but he doesn't highlight the connection any more than is appropriate (see our post on this, here).

There are a few scientific errors that are important in the film. At one point Gore claims that you can see the aerosol concentrations in Antarctic ice cores change "in just two years", due to the U.S. Clean Air Act. You can't see dust and aerosols at all in Antarctic cores -- not with the naked eye -- and I'm skeptical you can definitively point to the influence of the Clean Air Act. I was left wondering whether Gore got this notion, and I hope he'll correct it in future versions of his slideshow. Another complaint is the juxtaposition of an image relating to CO₂ emissions and an image illustrating invasive plant species. This is misleading; the problem of invasive species is predominantly due to land use change and importation, not to "global warming". Still, these are rather minor errors. It is true that the effect of reduced leaded gasoline use in the U.S. does clearly show up in Greenland ice cores; and it is also certainly true that climate change could exacerbate the problem of invasive species.

Several of my colleagues complained that a more significant error is Gore's use of the long ice core records of CO₂ and temperature (from oxygen isotope measurements) in Antarctic ice cores to illustrate the correlation between the two. The complaint is that the correlation is somewhat misleading, because a number of other climate forcings besides CO₂ contribute to the change in Antarctic temperature between glacial and interglacial climate. Simply extrapolating this correlation forward in time puts the temperature in 2100 A.D. somewhere upwards of 10 C warmer than present -- rather at the extreme end of the vast majority of projections (as we have discussed here). However, I don't really agree with my colleagues' criticism on this point. Gore is careful not to state what the temperature/CO₂ scaling is. He is making a qualitative point, which is entirely accurate. The fact is that it would be difficult or impossible to explain past changes in temperature during the ice age cycles without CO₂ changes (as we have discussed here). In that sense, the ice core CO₂-temperature correlation remains an appropriate demonstration of the influence of CO₂ on climate.

For the most part, I think Gore gets the science right, just as he did in Earth in the Balance. The small errors don't detract from Gore's main point, which is that we in the United States have the technological and institutional ability to have a significant impact on the future trajectory of climate change. This is not entirely a scientific issue -- indeed, Gore repeatedly makes the point that it is a moral issue -- but Gore draws heavily on Pacala and Socolow's recent work to show that the technology is there (see Science 305, p. 968 Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies).

I'll admit that I have been a bit of a skeptic about our ability to take any substantive action, especially here in the U.S.
Gore's aim is to change that viewpoint, and the colleagues I saw the movie with all seem to agree that he is successful.

Bush splashes out on ocean research

President offers marine science $140-million cash boost.

A group of the United States' top ocean specialists this week issued a 'report card' on how the government is treating the sea. And if President George W. Bush had brought home in his school days the grades he received from that exercise, his mother would not have been impressed. The worst grade of all — an F for 'fail' — was for new funding of ocean programmes.

But just before the report was released on 30 January, Bush officials declared that the president will request $143 million more for the oceans in his 2008 budget than in 2007. Of this, $80 million will be for research, with focuses on an ocean monitoring network, comparative analysis of marine ecosystems, and research on the water circulation in the Atlantic.

The Bush administration's announcement also listed some legislative goals for the year. These included acceding to the United Nations Law of the Sea and passing specific authorizing legislation for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the main ocean-research agency, to increase its political heft.

Carlos Gutierrez, head of the commerce department of which NOAA is part, says the plan will "sharpen our focus and expand our knowledge of our oceans, which is incredibly important for everything we do in the future".

But most years, NOAA gets far more money from Congress than the president requests. So critics of Bush were quick to dismiss the announcement's significance.

"The president's 2007 request provided $300 million less for ocean, coastal and Great Lakes programmes in research and resource management at NOAA than Congress gave the agency in 2006," says Bart Gordon (Democrat, Tennessee), chair of the House Committee on Science and Technology. "While this year's budget request is an improvement, I suspect this is still disappointing news to those who want to see more attention paid to ocean and coastal issues."

James Watkins, chair of the congressionally mandated Commission on Ocean Policy, which in 2004 recommended a far-reaching effort to bolster US ocean research, is also unconvinced. "I have been around this town for 50 years and I have always been a bit leery of rhetoric versus reality when it comes to the budget," he says of Bush's plan for ocean research. "We need $750 million to get this kick-started — that's one day in Iraq."

Gerald Leape, vice-president for marine conservation at the National Environmental Trust in Washington DC, says he is "sceptical" about the Bush plan, but is generally hopeful about the budgetary outlook for ocean research this year.

Offsetters

If you are booking a flight on WestJet consider booking through the Offsetters site so you can offset the climate impacts of your travel. WestJet will contribute a portion of the ticket price to Offsetters, which in turn puts money towards reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. One of the founders of Offsetters, Hadi Dowlatabadi, is a colleague of Jamie's from IRES at UBC.

A magic potion?

Coca-Cola prepares to launch a “wellness” drink

NATURAL and functional are the latest buzzwords in the food and soft-drinks industries. Enviga, a new health drink made by Coca-Cola, the world's biggest maker of fizzy soft drinks, and Nestlé, the largest food firm, is supposed to be both. A concoction of “natural” green-tea extracts, caffeine and “plant micronutrients”, it will go on sale across America next month. Its makers claim it can help consumers to lose weight.

“Enviga increases calorie burning,” declared Rhona Applebaum, Coca-Cola's chief scientist, when the new drink was unveiled in late 2006. Coke claims studies have shown that a healthy person of normal weight can burn 60 to 100 calories by consuming three cans of Enviga over 24 hours. The studies have not been made public.

Health and wellness are the main sources of growth in the soft-drinks industry. In 2005 global sales of healthy drinks, which include bottled water, fruit juice, and sports and energy drinks, amounted to $138 billion, or 45% of the soft-drinks market. Growth rates are seven times higher than for carbonated sugary drinks. In America sales of carbonated drinks declined a little in 2005 as government campaigns and media coverage raised concerns over obesity.

Will consumers take to Enviga? Only one out of every three new soft drinks is a success, says Robert van Brugge, a drinks analyst at Sanford Bernstein. Recent high-profile flops include Vanilla Coke and Coca-Cola C2. Mr van Brugge says he does not much like the taste of Enviga, which comes in green tea, berry and peach flavours. And the suggested retail price of $1.29-1.49 is relatively high.

Enviga's fate will probably turn on Coke's claim that it helps to burn calories. The Centre for Science in the Public Interest, a consumer lobby group, threatened to sue Nestlé and Coke over the weight-loss claims for the new drink unless they changed their marketing strategy by January 4th. Yet even if the claims made for Enviga are accurate, drinking it would be a pretty inefficient way to lose weight. To shed the 560 calories in a Big Mac, you would have to swallow about 20 cans of the stuff. Going for a long run would seem to be a lesser—not to mention more economical—punishment for gluttony.

Yoga in schools denounced as anti-Christian

Ethan Baron, CanWest News Service

Published: Wednesday, January 10, 2007

VANCOUVER --Some Christians in Quesnel are taking aim at a provincewide public-school program that uses yoga to promote fitness.

"Supposedly, we do not allow religion in schools -- and yoga is a religion," said cattle rancher Audrey Cummings, 68, who filed a complaint with the Quesnel school board and the Education Ministry over the Action Schools program. Quesnel is in the B.C. interior, about 90 kilometres south of Prince George.

"I don't see what's the difference between that and saying we're going to have the Lord's Prayer in the morning," she said. "And the kids that don't want to don't have to participate."

The yoga exercises are presented from cards given to staff at schools participating in Action Schools.

The program, which includes many other fitness-related materials, is run by a private organization paid by the education ministry.

More than 1,100 elementary, middle and secondary schools in the province are signed on to Action Schools, with 247,830 students registered in the program.

Yoga turns kids' minds toward Hindu gods, Cummings said.

"If you're not seeking the God of the Bible, His power, then by default you're in the other camp," Cummings said. "The other source of supernatural power is Satan."

Yoga teachings can be traced back to scriptures at the roots of Hinduism.

Parent Chelsea Brears also complained to the school board and the ministry after her son at Kersley Elementary was asked to perform yoga, including one pose with his hands together.

Six schools in the Quesnel district participate in Action Schools.

Teachers might use elements from the program's kit at the start of the day or at various times to keep kids active, said district superintendent Sue-Ellen Miller.

Teachers use the yoga cards at their discretion, Miller said.

If a parent or student takes issue with yoga, alternate exercises will be provided for the pupil in question, Miller said.

"We would never mandate that a child do them," Miller said.

Action Schools is not part of the mandatory schools curriculum, and the yoga component focuses on stretching and breathing, said Education Minister Shirley Bond.

"There is not an intent to have a philosophic or religious intent for this," Bond said.

"We're trying to deal with the issue of obesity. We're trying to find as many ways as possible to engage our children in healthy and active lifestyles."

For Vancouver yoga instructor and former kindergarten teacher Mara Branscombe, yoga is not a religious practice, and she says it offers tremendous benefits to schoolchildren.

"Yoga brings clarity to the mind," Branscombe said. "The benefits are huge in terms of productivity."

The practice builds self-esteem and confidence, and controlled-breathing techniques promote an optimal state for student learning, Branscombe said.

"They're more relaxed, so they can work intelligently and creatively," she said.

People from a variety of backgrounds, including Christians, take classes at her yoga studio, Branscombe noted.

BC Place Collapses!

Photos from Vegas and Christmas

Christmas 2006

Top 10 science stories of 2006

From Nature.com

1. Pluto

Here's a question that 2006 strove valiantly to answer: what, exactly, is a planet, and is Pluto one?

This might seem a silly and inconsequential matter, and perhaps space enthusiasts were more taken by the latest snaps showing recent water flow on Mars, the crash-landing mission to the Moon, or even the ill-fated X-Prize Cup. But for astronomers, the debate about how to define a planet got very, very heated.

We blogged the brouhaha live from the International Astronomical Union meeting in Prague, where researchers concluded that Pluto, along with several other planetary contenders, is only a 'dwarf planet'. All those lists of our Solar System's nine planets end the year by being wrong — although the debate is likely to continue at the next meeting in 2009.

2. The drug trial that went horribly wrong

A graver matter was this year's drug trial that ended in disaster : an experimental drug that manipulates the immune system caused serious trauma and permanent injury to many of the volunteers in the phase I trial. The trial grabbed headlines with witness quotes about participants feeling as if their heads were about to explode, and also raised questions about how drug trials are conducted, and the wisdom of tinkering with the immune system. The repercussions are still being felt.

3. Disaster-struck Indonesia

More natural disasters struck the people of Indonesia, still recovering from the tsunami of 2004. On Java, Mount Merapi threatened to blow its top, aggravated in part by a major earthquake some days later. More than 5,000 people died in the quake, although the volcano quietened down. Another major quake in July caused a local tsunami that triggered warnings but still took at least five lives. And then a mysterious mud flow sprang up in east Java after an oil company drilled into the land. The flow has brought havoc to the local people and environment, and shows no sign of stopping. Geologists say it may never stop.

4. Muddled over methane

Perhaps the most befuddling research of the year involved the greenhouse gas methane. First it emerged that plants — not just rice paddies and bogs, but forests — might produce more of the gas than thought, a bizarre conclusion that has no known mechanism and has left many unconvinced. Other research into the gas brought bad news: it seems the apparent levelling off of methane emissions is just a result of natural declines masking rising human sources. And that won't last — not with the permafrost melting.

5. The inconvenient truth of climate change

The bad news from 2006 was that global greenhouse-gas emissionsare speeding up , and ever-more evidence shows that Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice. But at least it looks like the tide of opinion may be changing in the United States. Al Gore's slide-show-turned-film An Inconvenient Truth has had a big impact. And the US Supreme Court has heard, although not yet decided on, a landmark case attempting to force the US Environmental Protection Agency to regulate emissions. Even economists look to be taking climate change seriously — as shown by the worldwide attention devoted to UK chief economist Nicholas Stern's report on global warming's impact on the world's finances.

6. Genetic complications

Genetic research saw several surprise results this year — from a mapping of the human genome that revealed how humans may be more different from each other than was thought, to studies showing mechanisms of inheritance that go against textbook descriptions. In mice and plants, we no longer think that characteristics pass to offspring solely via DNA. The whole idea of DNA and genes being straightforward seems to have unraveled.

7. Medics on trial

In Libya this year, a fight has been waged in court and in the press over the fate of five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor, who were accused of deliberately infecting children with HIV. Scientific experts provided evidence that the medical team are not guilty, and wrote reports, published research, and made their findings widely known. Their evidence shows that the outbreak began several years before the accused began working at the hospital in 1998 and that it was probably caused by poor hygiene at the hospital. Yet the group was sentenced to death by the Libyan court this December. The medical team can appeal once more to the Supreme Court — as this story went to press it was uncertain when this would happen.

The case has highlighted, some say, what happens when a government refuses to accept the presence of health problems, such as the re-use of dirty needles, in its hospitals. It is not only the lives of the medical team on trial that are at stake in this story, but those of thousands of children in African hospital wards who are still at risk of infection.

8. Seeking stem cells

George Bush vetoed a bill that could have seen more stem-cell lines opened up to research in the United States, while the European Union voted to fund some work with human embryonic stem cells, with restrictions. Controversy over the ethical and religious implications of such work rages on. But there was also progress in efforts to make embryonic stem-cell lines without destroying an embryo — either by not harming the embryo (also done in mice this year) , or by extracting cells from an embryo that had died naturally.

9. A fizzle heard around the world

North Korea grabbed the attention this year by testing both a missile and a nuclear device — neither of which seemed to go perfectly. Their smaller-than-average may have made a relatively small bang, but it still reached the ears of politicians desperate to halt the county's nuclear advance. Despite international talks, no firm agreements have been reached — although reports from North Korea indicate that ageing equipment and a lack of raw material may hamper the country's nuclear ambitions.

10. Russian recluse spurns prize

Perhaps the strangest story of the year was mathematical. A reclusive Russian who seems to have cracked one of the Clay Prize problems declined both the Fields Medal and its Cdn$15,000 (US$13,000) cash prize. If Grigory Perelman's proof of the Poincaré conjecture is deemed to deserve the US$1 million offered by the Clay Mathematics Institute, there are hints he may decline that too.